Terrorism Watch

Despite the upheavals in the intelligence community as a result of CIA Director Porter Goss’ management changes, and the resulting shifting of authorities in the Counter Terrorism Center, there is no evidence yet that the focus of anti-terrorism officials has been distorted. Over the Thanksgiving holiday period there have been no new indicators of impending terrorist action in North America. The threats reported in the media regarding the Canary Wharf area of London are older potential actions that were well monitored by British authorities and were pre-empted early in the talking stage. US and British law enforcement are now closely monitoring a London-based group that is known to be in touch with al Qaeda and may have information about future al Qaeda operations. The group in London is allegedly linked to some Americans who are being surveilled by the FBI. At present, no solid threat information has been developed but the London-based element has discussed the possibility of a “dirty bomb” operation in the US, infiltrated through Canada. The alleged FARC plot to assassinate President Bush during his Colombian stopover, as claimed by Defense Minister Jorge Uribe, cannot be substantiated. The US Secret Service had no independent information about such a threat. Uribe ascribed the plot to information provided by Colombian informants but the threat information cannot be corroborated. (See Latin America section).

Middle East

Even though the Palestinians and Israel are inching towards direct negotiations, the tension in the region continues to be high and the US Department of State has issued a new general travel warning for Israel and the Palestinian areas. Although the broad threat of terrorist action continues, the greater risk is travel in the areas under Palestinian jurisdiction. There have been assurances from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad that those groups will not carry out suicide operations inside Israel in the period leading to the scheduled Palestinian elections. While these assurances cannot be taken on face value, a Hamas source indicates that Hamas’ military structure has been gravely damaged by Israeli operations and has limited that organization’s ability to orchestrate significant suicide operations inside Israel in the short term. So Hamas’ promise to Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) that it would avoid sabotaging Palestinian elections through terrorist operations is credible. The principal danger comes from individual rogue operations carried out on impulse.

Demonstrations are also a risk for visitors to Israel due to the tension between the government and the Israeli settlers and their supporters. There have been a number of specific threats to kill Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. As the Palestinians are also seeking to designate a new national leadership, the danger of demonstrations and political unrest in the occupied territories is elevated. Military operations carried out by the Israeli Army also continue and a number of innocent bystanders have been killed in exchanges with gunmen. The Israeli authorities have also targeted foreign visitors who engage in pro-Palestinian volunteer work, harassing and sometimes beating them. This has also meant that US citizens who are believed to be sympathetic to Palestinian causes are sometimes being denied entry at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport and are being detained at checkpoints when they attempt to travel inside Israel and in the Palestinian areas.

There has been a series of demonstrations in Beirut, Lebanon, opposing UN Security Council resolution 1559. The resolution demands that Lebanon expel foreign troops from its borders, a reference to the Syrian presence in the country. The Syrians are being supported by some Muslim political groupings that want to weaken the political authority of some moderate Islamic groups and Christian political parties. The demonstrations have so far been peaceful, but there is a heavy police presence and violence is likely if they continue. The demonstrators are not specifically anti-European or anti-US, but there have been accusations of outside interference and reprisals against foreigners and foreign businesses could easily develop.

The ongoing saga with Iran over its nuclear weapons program continues. The European Union negotiators France, Britain, and Germany have again reached an agreement with Tehran to suspend all activities that could lead to the production of enriched uranium or plutonium for nuclear weapons. The deal is to be presented to the International Atomic Energy Agency today and could lift the threat of sanctions in spite of US accusations that Iran is attempting to develop a nuclear bomb. The Europeans have agreed to provide Iran with a package of economic and security assistance programs, to include a light water reactor to generate nuclear power that cannot be used in weapons production. The US has already indicated that it will neither help nor hinder the agreement, but it is suspicious of Iran’s intentions. Iran has a history of making agreements and then not carrying through on its commitments, and there is considerable suspicion that the current agreement is just a way of buying time while the weapons program moves ahead. There is some intelligence information suggesting that Tehran has set up and is running a number of secret facilities that could be producing nuclear fuel, though it is largely from defector sources and is uncorroborated. The country also has its own domestic supply of uranium, making it the only country in the region that could potentially be self-sufficient in a nuclear program. 

North America

The White House has ordered a dramatic increase in hiring at FBI and the CIA and has initiated a study of whether the Pentagon should take over CIA’s paramilitary operations. The moves come at a time when the intelligence reform bill is stalled in Congress, largely due to lack of support from the Administration. Critics claim that the White House is seeking to sidestep the issue of intelligence reform and is attempting to bring about changes by executive action rather than legislation. The changes at CIA will mean an increase in the number of analysts by at least fifty per cent and a doubling in the clandestine services, with particularly attention to critical languages and officers who are able to work against weapons proliferation. CIA has already increased officers in those critical areas but is having trouble finding candidates with the necessary language and educational backgrounds. Many applicants who have the skills cannot meet security requirements to be hired. FBI, meanwhile, has been tasked with the development of a specialized national security workforce in an attempt to make domestic security its highest priority. 

Europe

The situation in the Ukraine continues to be highly unstable as the country’s Supreme Court seeks a way out of the constitutional crisis. The Presidential election in the country has been disputed due to charges of fraud and the inauguration of the new President is in doubt, with the United States and Europe lining up behind Viktor Yushchenko while the Russians are supporting the apparent victor in the voting incumbent Viktor Yanukovich. The elections revealed a major East-West divide in the electorate, with the Western part of the country voting for opposition leader Yushchenko while the East voted heavily in favor of Yanukovich. There is considerable agitation for the Eastern half of the country to secede and create its own republic, a situation that could lead to civil war. Police and Army units are reportedly gathering around the capital Kiev. Western Embassies are warning their citizens that they should be ready to leave if the situation deteriorates. Citizens of Germany, France, Britain, and the United States have been asked to register at their respective Embassies to facilitate possible evacuation. Sources in the Ukraine describe the situation as extremely volatile. Ukraine, mired in corruption, is a part of the former Soviet Union that has been unable to prosper economically and politically in the capitalist world. Many of the voters blame the leadership of the country, which has used state owned companies to support political parties and has continued to run the Ukraine as if it were a planned economy. If Yanukovich wins the election there will be more of the same, with Kiev closely linked to Moscow. Yushchenko has promised sweeping reforms and is being supported by Western governments.

The United States has shared information with the government of Spain that suggests that planning for the September 11th attacks in Washington and New York was carried out by the same al-Qaeda team that planned the attacks on the Madrid trains in March. It has long been known that some of the September 11th plotters were in Spain before the attacks and it is now believed that Syrian al-Qaeda member Mustafa Setmarian or an associate was involved in the planning of both attacks. Setmarian is being sought by the European authorities and the United States has posted a $5 million reward for his capture. According to intelligence sources, information on the possible linkage was provided by Ramzi bin al-Shibh, who is currently in US custody and is being interrogated. If the information is correct it suggests that al-Qaeda might continue to be in operational control of its field elements, contradicting the theory that local al-Qaeda groups were largely operating autonomously. 

Asia

The Burmese government has extended the house arrest of pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi. The Burmese parliament had earlier passed a law that permitted extended detention for up to one year for reasons of state security. The law is being applied to Suu Kyi and will enable the authorities to restrict her movements until September 2005. Suu Kyi is head of the National League for Democracy, which won election by a landslide popular vote in 1990. NLD was not allowed to assume power and was declared a subversive organization by the Army, which has ruled Burma since 1962. Since that time, there has been considerable agitation for a return to civilian rule and Burma has been ostracized by much of the international community. Suu Kyi has won the Nobel peace prize for her efforts to restore democracy. Even though she is only 59 years old, she is reported to be in poor health due to her years in prison.

The Taliban have continued their attacks against aid workers in Afghanistan, killing three Afghan workers and wounding security guards in an assault on Sunday. Another aid worker was kidnapped. The attack took place in Dilaram, a major crossroads town in Southwestern Afghanistan, and involved at least thirty armed attackers. More than twenty aid workers have been killed during the past year, leading many relief organizations to cut back on their activities. Security sources in Afghanistan indicate that the situation in the countryside continues to be extremely dangerous. US and NATO troops continue to be concentrated in the major cities, leaving the countryside to the insurgents and the warlords. The Afghan Army is small and has made little impact on the security situation while police are only active in the cities and major towns. Afghan President Hamid Karzai is frequently referred to as the “President of Kabul,” a reference to the fact that he only really controls the capital. 

Africa

The Sudan has expelled the head of a British based international aid agency Save the Children, claiming that the group was interfering in its domestic affairs. Kate Halff was ordered to leave the country over the weekend and a second British charity Oxfam was also warned that its country director had been acting inappropriately. The two charities are among the most respected in the world and both are scrupulous about staying out of local politics. Both have been actively distributing food and medicine in the Darfur region of Sudan. Save the Children alone has been helping to feed as many as 300,000 children among the nearly two million refugees. If it is forced to shut down, many will starve. Diplomatic sources believe that the charity is being targeted because it complained to the Khartoum government after one of its distribution centers was bombed by the Sudanese Air Force. 

Latin America

Reports that insurgents belonging to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia attempted to assassinate US President George Bush during his recent visit to Cartagena are being disputed by both Colombian and US authorities. The group, generally known by its acronym FARC, reportedly told its supporters to attack President Bush during his meeting with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. The report of the alleged plot was stated by Colombian Defense Minister Jorge Uribe, but the leak was quickly denied by all parties involved. Bush was protected by a Colombian Army presence of more than 15,000 soldiers and his own large Secret Service detail. Intelligence sources note that FARC has little or no capability of carrying out any attacks in Cartagena, the coastal city that was the site of the Presidential meeting. FARC is active elsewhere, mostly in rural areas, and has declared that US troops and government officials are to be considered potential targets.

The mob killing to two Federal Policemen in San Juan Ixtayopan late last week has shocked Mexico and led to the suspension of four senior police officials who failed to assist the officers. The men were beaten for three hours and finally doused with paint thinner and burned to death. Press teams from nearby Mexico City were able to film the event, but no police reinforcements intervened even though the men had called in to their superiors when the attack started. The men were attacked by a mob when they were seen taking pictures near a school yard during a surveillance linked to possible drug activity in the area. Even when they identified themselves as policemen the attack continued. According to security sources, the local residents believe that the police are completely corrupt and involved in most of the criminal activity in the town.